Gates and Microsoft Part II

In Part I of this article, we discussed Bill Gates and his impact on the Microsoft organization. Now let's move on to what might happen after he is gone.

SUCCESSORS AND STEVE BALLMER
While I'm on the topic of new leadership, let's talk about Steve Ballmer. It will be interesting to see how Mr. Ballmer is viewed in the history of Microsoft, as time goes by. Will he be seen as one of the "creators of the culture", or simply the first short term caretaker as Gates exits. My own opinion is that he has been a real partner to Gates, and a large influence and reinforcer of the culture--particularly the "take no prisoners" attitude that I've discussed above. My belief is that while Ballmer is leading the company, it will behave both culturally and strategically, much like it does today. Not so much because Ballmer is simply a caretaker, but because he has had such an important role in the company's direction to date. I'm sure that Mr. Ballmer will put his own stamp on the company much more publicly after Bill G's transition, but I don't expect any near term, 180 degree shifts--unless market conditions change dramatically.

WILL MICROSOFT MAINTAIN ITS DOMINANCE?
Not forever. Every dominant company, in every industry, eventually "implodes under its own weight"--as I have opined in previous writings. The only question is, how long? The company is a cash generation machine, which will go a long way toward extending its dominance. I don't see anything on the near term horizon that will jeopardize its position. Certainly the shift toward Web-based applications and away from OS-based apps isn't in Microsoft's favor, from a "dominance" viewpoint. This will certainly be a threat to MS over time, unless the company does a better job than it has done to date in "planned obsolescence"--the shifting of its current huge revenue stream of OS-base applications to Web-based counterparts. But unlike some, I don't see this as a change agent that will quickly and dramatically diminish the company's dominance. If there is a sea change to occur that will quickly knock Microsoft off of its pedestal--any time soon--I believe that we haven't recognized it yet.

STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES FOR MICROSOFT
One of the things that have been kicked around in the press from time to time is the possibility of breaking up the behemoth that Microsoft has become, into several more manageable, focused independent businesses. I'm a believer that size is eventually the enemy of all successful companies, and that lack of focus is damaging to businesses of all sizes. I believe that Microsoft is suffering, at this stage of its life, from early symptoms of both of those corporate diseases. So there is some logic to breaking the company up, as a strategic alternative. I don't expect this anytime soon, however. As I stated above, unless there are great changes in market conditions, I don't expect dramatic changes at MS, as long as Gates and Ballmer are still heavily involved. Founders have a way of sticking close to what brought them to the dance, and are typically averse to breaking up their own company. You never know; Ballmer is a risk taker, so maybe he will seriously consider this--although I personally don't see him going through with it. But I do believe this will happen eventually, probably when the first outsider takes control of MS--and most likely as the company is being tipped off it's current industry-leading pedestal.

I've given some pointed opinions on this great company, and what I believe may come to pass with it during this gradual transition. I've raised even more questions than I've asked. What do you think will happen?

Article Source: http://www.articlesinsight.com

Phil Morettini is President of PJM Consulting, Management Consultants to Tech Companies PJM provides assistance in Management, Product Marketing and Biz Dev. More Articles at www.pjmconsult.com/philsblog.html "> Tech Management Blog . Contact Phil at www.pjmconsult.com"> Software Management Consulting

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